Election 2020 – The One With All The Tables…

Acknowledging I am by no means an expert on statistics or Excel formulas, this post is essentially providing the raw data and working out of trends that underpin my previous two posts. I am putting it here so that others can fact-check my work and identify if – and where – I may have made an error.

All the raw data is culled from the Parliamentary Registrar’s website; I simply took some time to do the data entry then developed what formulas made sense to me for the questions I wanted to ask.

Also, in reviewing my sums I realised I made some mistakes in my initial analysis, and the corrected data is represented below. I messed up calculating the % change between the two elections. This post identifies these and corrects them.

NB – I disregarded all the spoiled/rejected ballots in my analysis. However, they can prove a proxy for FDM or OBA votes in constituencies lacking such candidates, or general voter dismay.

2017 results
Constituency	PLP	OBA	Independent	Nonvoter
1	590	365	0	318
2	690	360	0	360
3	737	228	0	453
4	652	429	0	372
5	808	192	0	336
6	635	281	60	292
7	465	486	0	347
8	274	729	15	323
9	405	540	0	329
10	454	497	0	310
11	513	419	0	302
12	152	748	0	341
13	616	337	0	321
14	568	385	41	265
15	733	73	0	344
16	820	58	0	386
17	540	283	0	322
18	639	326	0	286
19	379	502	0	350
20	176	650	0	364
21	538	228	34	422
22	397	704	0	376
23	317	645	0	413
24	723	334	0	376
25	428	493	0	335
26	724	192	0	358
27	661	338	0	284
28	530	518	0	331
29	726	145	0	371
30	463	516	0	392
31	457	506	0	361
32	645	263	19	351
33	653	339	0	411
34	730	170	0	340
35	644	261	0	382
36	577	297	0	380
Totals	20059	13837	169	12604

Table 1 – The 2017 Election Results

2020 results
Constituency	PLP	OBA	FDM	Independent	Nonvoter
1	608	195	0	0	502
2	576	177	65	0	521
3	663	125	0	0	638
4	655	223	0	0	533
5	641	105	114	0	520
6	634	162	0	0	503
7	422	326	89	0	471
8	318	547	0	0	473
9	432	403	0	0	471
10	324	503	0	0	441
11	567	282	0	0	411
12	172	531	96	12	542
13	496	197	63	0	453
14	454	222	0	0	543
15	603	44	0	0	538
16	0	0		0	0
17	0	0		0	0
18	626	124	37	0	425
19	368	307	39	0	509
20	124	485	0	0	549
21	432	0	125	0	626
22	365	472	0	0	553
23	282	447	0	0	567
24	564	240	0	13	529
25	419	405	0	0	487
26	0	0		0	0
27	532	192	48	39	440
28	498	329	0	0	521
29	630	78	0	0	520
30	486	400	0	0	510
31	441	388	0	0	486
32	551	131	100	0	481
33	532	0	202	0	580
34	611	63	131	0	486
35	538	97	90	3	529
36	431	114	185	0	520
Totals	15995	8314	1384	67	16878

Table 2 – The 2020 Election Results

Constituency	PLP	OBA	Independent/FDM	Nonvoter
2017	20059	13837	169	12604
2020	15995	8314	1451	16878
2020 % to 2017 %	79.74	60.09	858.58	133.91
% Change	20.26	39.91	-758.58	-33.91

Table 3 – This is the % change between the 2017 and 2018 elections – the key line is the bottome one “% Change” – and the numbers should be read in the inverse. The PLP vote declined by -20.3%; the OBA vote declined by -39.9%; the non-voter bloc increased by +33.9%.

2017 results
Constituency	PLP	OBA	Independent	Nonvoter
1	590	365	0	318
2	690	360	0	360
3	737	228	0	453
4	652	429	0	372
5	808	192	0	336
6	635	281	60	292
7	465	486	0	347
8	274	729	15	323
9	405	540	0	329
10	454	497	0	310
11	513	419	0	302
12	152	748	0	341
13	616	337	0	321
14	568	385	41	265
15	733	73	0	344
18	639	326	0	286
19	379	502	0	350
20	176	650	0	364
21	538	228	34	422
22	397	704	0	376
23	317	645	0	413
24	723	334	0	376
25	428	493	0	335
27	661	338	0	284
28	530	518	0	331
29	726	145	0	371
30	463	516	0	392
31	457	506	0	361
32	645	263	19	351
33	653	339	0	411
34	730	170	0	340
35	644	261	0	382
36	577	297	0	380
Totals	17975	13304	169	11538

Table 4 – 2017 Results with 3 uncontested seats removed (C16, C17 and C26).

2020 results
Constituency	PLP	OBA	FDM	Independent	Nonvoter
1	608	195	0	0	502
2	576	177	65	0	521
3	663	125	0	0	638
4	655	223	0	0	533
5	641	105	114	0	520
6	634	162	0	0	503
7	422	326	89	0	471
8	318	547	0	0	473
9	432	403	0	0	471
10	324	503	0	0	441
11	567	282	0	0	411
12	172	531	96	12	542
13	496	197	63	0	453
14	454	222	0	0	543
15	603	44	0	0	538
18	626	124	37	0	425
19	368	307	39	0	509
20	124	485	0	0	549
21	432	0	125	0	626
22	365	472	0	0	553
23	282	447	0	0	567
24	564	240	0	13	529
25	419	405	0	0	487
27	532	192	48	39	440
28	498	329	0	0	521
29	630	78	0	0	520
30	486	400	0	0	510
31	441	388	0	0	486
32	551	131	100	0	481
33	532	0	202	0	580
34	611	63	131	0	486
35	538	97	90	3	529
36	431	114	185	0	520
Totals	15995	8314	1384	67	16878

Table 5 – 2020 Results with 3 uncontested constituencies removed (C16, C17 and C20).

Constituency	PLP	OBA	Independent/FDM	Nonvoter
2017	17975	13304	169	11538
2020	15995	8314	1451	16878
2020 % to 2017 %	88.98	62.49	858.58	146.28
% Change	11.02	37.51	-758.58	-46.28

Table 6 – Demonstrates the % change in the vote by category, accounting for the 3 uncontested seats. The key line is the bottom “% Change” which should be read in the inverse. The PLP vote decline by -11%; the OBA vote declined by -37.5%; the non-voter bloc increased by +46.3%.

Basically what we can see here is that the PLP vote did not decline anywhere near to the degree that the OBA vote did. The combined FDM/Indpendent column is really rather meaningless at this stage – 2020 provides a baseline for the 2020 going forward only. However, the data – at another level – will help us try to understand where the PLP/OBA lost voters went and where the FDM vote came from. This to be looked at later; first I was curious what the picture looked like at each constituency.

% Change 2017-2020
Constituency	PLP	OBA	Nonvoter
1	-3.05	46.58	-57.86
2	16.52	50.83	-44.72
3	10.04	45.18	-40.84
4	-0.46	48.02	-43.28
5	20.67	45.31	-54.76
6	0.16	42.35	-72.26
7	9.25	32.92	-35.73
8	-16.06	24.97	-46.44
9	-6.67	25.37	-43.16
10	28.63	-1.21	-42.26
11	-10.53	32.70	-36.09
12	-13.16	29.01	-58.94
13	19.48	41.54	-41.12
14	20.07	42.34	-104.91
15	17.74	39.73	-56.40
18	2.03	61.96	-48.60
19	2.90	38.84	-45.43
20	29.55	25.38	-50.82
21	19.70	100.00	-48.34
22	8.06	32.95	-47.07
23	11.04	30.70	-37.29
24	21.99	28.14	-40.69
25	2.10	17.85	-45.37
27	19.52	43.20	-54.93
28	6.04	36.49	-57.40
29	13.22	46.21	-40.16
30	-4.97	22.48	-30.10
31	3.50	23.32	-34.63
32	14.57	50.19	-37.04
33	18.53	100.00	-41.12
34	16.30	62.94	-42.94
35	16.46	62.84	-38.48
36	25.30	61.62	-36.84
Mean	9.65	42.14	-47.15

Table 7 – % Change in vote for PLP, OBA and non-voters between 2017 and 2020. To be read in the inverse (positives to be read as negatives).

Now we get to see the change in each constituency. I am rusty with Excel, but all of these should be read in the inverse. That which is positive is actually a decline and vice versa. I’ve also not included the FDM here – they are looked at elsewhere.

Also, one should note that at least two of these constituencies lacked an OBA candidate, and so saw a -100% decline, which somewhat warps the data. As such, the key takeaways are:

1. The PLP declined on average by -9.7% in each constituency.
2. The OBA vote declined on average by -42.1% in each constituency. Adjusting for the 2 constituencies lacking OBA candidates, their actual average decline was -38.4% in each constituency.
3. The non-voter bloc increased on averaged by +47.2% in each constituency.
4. The PLP vote increased in some areas and decreased in some.
5. The largest PLP vote declines were in C20 (-29.6%); C10 (-28.6%); C36 (-25.3%); C24 (-21.99%); C5 (-20.7%); C14 (-20.1%); C21 (-19.7%); C27 (-19.5%); and C13 (-19.5%).
6. The largest PLP vote increases were in just 7 constituencies (29 saw declines): C8 (+16.1%); C12 (+13.2%); C11 (+10.5%); C9 (+6.7%); C30 (+5%); C1 (+3.1%); and C4 (+0.5%).
7. The largest PLP vote decline, in C20, may largely be attributed to a boundary change that removed a significant number of traditionally PLP voters, moving them to the previously marginal C17. C17 was uncontested in this election, however it is likely this boundary change renders C17 less of a marginal and more of a PLP safe seat going forward.
8. The causes for the changes in the PLP votes reflected above need to be investigated further (boundary changes, candidate ‘star’ power, canvassing/campaign investment are all possible, but harder to quantify).
9. The OBA vote saw an increase in only one constituency, C10, with a +1.2% increase.
10. The five largest OBA vote declines were in C34 (-63%); C35 (-62.8%); C18 (62%); C36 (61.6%); and C2 (50.8%).
11. The median OBA decline was 39.7%; The median PLP decline was 11%.
12. It is worth noting that three of the OBA’s largest declines were in seats that saw a specific concentration of FDM activity (more later).
13. It is also worth noting that one of the OBA’s largest declines was the one held by their Leader and considered one of the OBA’s safest seats – indicative of a general vote of no confidence in the OBA Leader by its supporters?

Now, as this post is getting long and is already chockful of data, I am going to end it here, and devote another post specifically to trying to answer the following questions:

1. Where did the missing PLP/OBA voters go?
2. Where did the FDM vote come from?