Acknowledging I am by no means an expert on statistics or Excel formulas, this post is essentially providing the raw data and working out of trends that underpin my previous two posts. I am putting it here so that others can fact-check my work and identify if – and where – I may have made an error.
All the raw data is culled from the Parliamentary Registrar’s website; I simply took some time to do the data entry then developed what formulas made sense to me for the questions I wanted to ask.
Also, in reviewing my sums I realised I made some mistakes in my initial analysis, and the corrected data is represented below. I messed up calculating the % change between the two elections. This post identifies these and corrects them.
NB – I disregarded all the spoiled/rejected ballots in my analysis. However, they can prove a proxy for FDM or OBA votes in constituencies lacking such candidates, or general voter dismay.
2017 results | ||||
Constituency | PLP | OBA | Independent | Nonvoter |
1 | 590 | 365 | 0 | 318 |
2 | 690 | 360 | 0 | 360 |
3 | 737 | 228 | 0 | 453 |
4 | 652 | 429 | 0 | 372 |
5 | 808 | 192 | 0 | 336 |
6 | 635 | 281 | 60 | 292 |
7 | 465 | 486 | 0 | 347 |
8 | 274 | 729 | 15 | 323 |
9 | 405 | 540 | 0 | 329 |
10 | 454 | 497 | 0 | 310 |
11 | 513 | 419 | 0 | 302 |
12 | 152 | 748 | 0 | 341 |
13 | 616 | 337 | 0 | 321 |
14 | 568 | 385 | 41 | 265 |
15 | 733 | 73 | 0 | 344 |
16 | 820 | 58 | 0 | 386 |
17 | 540 | 283 | 0 | 322 |
18 | 639 | 326 | 0 | 286 |
19 | 379 | 502 | 0 | 350 |
20 | 176 | 650 | 0 | 364 |
21 | 538 | 228 | 34 | 422 |
22 | 397 | 704 | 0 | 376 |
23 | 317 | 645 | 0 | 413 |
24 | 723 | 334 | 0 | 376 |
25 | 428 | 493 | 0 | 335 |
26 | 724 | 192 | 0 | 358 |
27 | 661 | 338 | 0 | 284 |
28 | 530 | 518 | 0 | 331 |
29 | 726 | 145 | 0 | 371 |
30 | 463 | 516 | 0 | 392 |
31 | 457 | 506 | 0 | 361 |
32 | 645 | 263 | 19 | 351 |
33 | 653 | 339 | 0 | 411 |
34 | 730 | 170 | 0 | 340 |
35 | 644 | 261 | 0 | 382 |
36 | 577 | 297 | 0 | 380 |
Totals | 20059 | 13837 | 169 | 12604 |
2020 results | |||||
Constituency | PLP | OBA | FDM | Independent | Nonvoter |
1 | 608 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 502 |
2 | 576 | 177 | 65 | 0 | 521 |
3 | 663 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 638 |
4 | 655 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 533 |
5 | 641 | 105 | 114 | 0 | 520 |
6 | 634 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 503 |
7 | 422 | 326 | 89 | 0 | 471 |
8 | 318 | 547 | 0 | 0 | 473 |
9 | 432 | 403 | 0 | 0 | 471 |
10 | 324 | 503 | 0 | 0 | 441 |
11 | 567 | 282 | 0 | 0 | 411 |
12 | 172 | 531 | 96 | 12 | 542 |
13 | 496 | 197 | 63 | 0 | 453 |
14 | 454 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 543 |
15 | 603 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 538 |
16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
18 | 626 | 124 | 37 | 0 | 425 |
19 | 368 | 307 | 39 | 0 | 509 |
20 | 124 | 485 | 0 | 0 | 549 |
21 | 432 | 0 | 125 | 0 | 626 |
22 | 365 | 472 | 0 | 0 | 553 |
23 | 282 | 447 | 0 | 0 | 567 |
24 | 564 | 240 | 0 | 13 | 529 |
25 | 419 | 405 | 0 | 0 | 487 |
26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
27 | 532 | 192 | 48 | 39 | 440 |
28 | 498 | 329 | 0 | 0 | 521 |
29 | 630 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 520 |
30 | 486 | 400 | 0 | 0 | 510 |
31 | 441 | 388 | 0 | 0 | 486 |
32 | 551 | 131 | 100 | 0 | 481 |
33 | 532 | 0 | 202 | 0 | 580 |
34 | 611 | 63 | 131 | 0 | 486 |
35 | 538 | 97 | 90 | 3 | 529 |
36 | 431 | 114 | 185 | 0 | 520 |
Totals | 15995 | 8314 | 1384 | 67 | 16878 |
Constituency | PLP | OBA | Independent/FDM | Nonvoter |
2017 | 20059 | 13837 | 169 | 12604 |
2020 | 15995 | 8314 | 1451 | 16878 |
2020 % to 2017 % | 79.74 | 60.09 | 858.58 | 133.91 |
% Change | 20.26 | 39.91 | -758.58 | -33.91 |
2017 results | ||||
Constituency | PLP | OBA | Independent | Nonvoter |
1 | 590 | 365 | 0 | 318 |
2 | 690 | 360 | 0 | 360 |
3 | 737 | 228 | 0 | 453 |
4 | 652 | 429 | 0 | 372 |
5 | 808 | 192 | 0 | 336 |
6 | 635 | 281 | 60 | 292 |
7 | 465 | 486 | 0 | 347 |
8 | 274 | 729 | 15 | 323 |
9 | 405 | 540 | 0 | 329 |
10 | 454 | 497 | 0 | 310 |
11 | 513 | 419 | 0 | 302 |
12 | 152 | 748 | 0 | 341 |
13 | 616 | 337 | 0 | 321 |
14 | 568 | 385 | 41 | 265 |
15 | 733 | 73 | 0 | 344 |
18 | 639 | 326 | 0 | 286 |
19 | 379 | 502 | 0 | 350 |
20 | 176 | 650 | 0 | 364 |
21 | 538 | 228 | 34 | 422 |
22 | 397 | 704 | 0 | 376 |
23 | 317 | 645 | 0 | 413 |
24 | 723 | 334 | 0 | 376 |
25 | 428 | 493 | 0 | 335 |
27 | 661 | 338 | 0 | 284 |
28 | 530 | 518 | 0 | 331 |
29 | 726 | 145 | 0 | 371 |
30 | 463 | 516 | 0 | 392 |
31 | 457 | 506 | 0 | 361 |
32 | 645 | 263 | 19 | 351 |
33 | 653 | 339 | 0 | 411 |
34 | 730 | 170 | 0 | 340 |
35 | 644 | 261 | 0 | 382 |
36 | 577 | 297 | 0 | 380 |
Totals | 17975 | 13304 | 169 | 11538 |
2020 results | |||||
Constituency | PLP | OBA | FDM | Independent | Nonvoter |
1 | 608 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 502 |
2 | 576 | 177 | 65 | 0 | 521 |
3 | 663 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 638 |
4 | 655 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 533 |
5 | 641 | 105 | 114 | 0 | 520 |
6 | 634 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 503 |
7 | 422 | 326 | 89 | 0 | 471 |
8 | 318 | 547 | 0 | 0 | 473 |
9 | 432 | 403 | 0 | 0 | 471 |
10 | 324 | 503 | 0 | 0 | 441 |
11 | 567 | 282 | 0 | 0 | 411 |
12 | 172 | 531 | 96 | 12 | 542 |
13 | 496 | 197 | 63 | 0 | 453 |
14 | 454 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 543 |
15 | 603 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 538 |
18 | 626 | 124 | 37 | 0 | 425 |
19 | 368 | 307 | 39 | 0 | 509 |
20 | 124 | 485 | 0 | 0 | 549 |
21 | 432 | 0 | 125 | 0 | 626 |
22 | 365 | 472 | 0 | 0 | 553 |
23 | 282 | 447 | 0 | 0 | 567 |
24 | 564 | 240 | 0 | 13 | 529 |
25 | 419 | 405 | 0 | 0 | 487 |
27 | 532 | 192 | 48 | 39 | 440 |
28 | 498 | 329 | 0 | 0 | 521 |
29 | 630 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 520 |
30 | 486 | 400 | 0 | 0 | 510 |
31 | 441 | 388 | 0 | 0 | 486 |
32 | 551 | 131 | 100 | 0 | 481 |
33 | 532 | 0 | 202 | 0 | 580 |
34 | 611 | 63 | 131 | 0 | 486 |
35 | 538 | 97 | 90 | 3 | 529 |
36 | 431 | 114 | 185 | 0 | 520 |
Totals | 15995 | 8314 | 1384 | 67 | 16878 |
Constituency | PLP | OBA | Independent/FDM | Nonvoter |
2017 | 17975 | 13304 | 169 | 11538 |
2020 | 15995 | 8314 | 1451 | 16878 |
2020 % to 2017 % | 88.98 | 62.49 | 858.58 | 146.28 |
% Change | 11.02 | 37.51 | -758.58 | -46.28 |
Basically what we can see here is that the PLP vote did not decline anywhere near to the degree that the OBA vote did. The combined FDM/Indpendent column is really rather meaningless at this stage – 2020 provides a baseline for the 2020 going forward only. However, the data – at another level – will help us try to understand where the PLP/OBA lost voters went and where the FDM vote came from. This to be looked at later; first I was curious what the picture looked like at each constituency.
% Change 2017-2020 | |||
Constituency | PLP | OBA | Nonvoter |
1 | -3.05 | 46.58 | -57.86 |
2 | 16.52 | 50.83 | -44.72 |
3 | 10.04 | 45.18 | -40.84 |
4 | -0.46 | 48.02 | -43.28 |
5 | 20.67 | 45.31 | -54.76 |
6 | 0.16 | 42.35 | -72.26 |
7 | 9.25 | 32.92 | -35.73 |
8 | -16.06 | 24.97 | -46.44 |
9 | -6.67 | 25.37 | -43.16 |
10 | 28.63 | -1.21 | -42.26 |
11 | -10.53 | 32.70 | -36.09 |
12 | -13.16 | 29.01 | -58.94 |
13 | 19.48 | 41.54 | -41.12 |
14 | 20.07 | 42.34 | -104.91 |
15 | 17.74 | 39.73 | -56.40 |
18 | 2.03 | 61.96 | -48.60 |
19 | 2.90 | 38.84 | -45.43 |
20 | 29.55 | 25.38 | -50.82 |
21 | 19.70 | 100.00 | -48.34 |
22 | 8.06 | 32.95 | -47.07 |
23 | 11.04 | 30.70 | -37.29 |
24 | 21.99 | 28.14 | -40.69 |
25 | 2.10 | 17.85 | -45.37 |
27 | 19.52 | 43.20 | -54.93 |
28 | 6.04 | 36.49 | -57.40 |
29 | 13.22 | 46.21 | -40.16 |
30 | -4.97 | 22.48 | -30.10 |
31 | 3.50 | 23.32 | -34.63 |
32 | 14.57 | 50.19 | -37.04 |
33 | 18.53 | 100.00 | -41.12 |
34 | 16.30 | 62.94 | -42.94 |
35 | 16.46 | 62.84 | -38.48 |
36 | 25.30 | 61.62 | -36.84 |
Mean | 9.65 | 42.14 | -47.15 |
Now we get to see the change in each constituency. I am rusty with Excel, but all of these should be read in the inverse. That which is positive is actually a decline and vice versa. I’ve also not included the FDM here – they are looked at elsewhere.
Also, one should note that at least two of these constituencies lacked an OBA candidate, and so saw a -100% decline, which somewhat warps the data. As such, the key takeaways are:
- The PLP declined on average by -9.7% in each constituency.
- The OBA vote declined on average by -42.1% in each constituency. Adjusting for the 2 constituencies lacking OBA candidates, their actual average decline was -38.4% in each constituency.
- The non-voter bloc increased on averaged by +47.2% in each constituency.
- The PLP vote increased in some areas and decreased in some.
- The largest PLP vote declines were in C20 (-29.6%); C10 (-28.6%); C36 (-25.3%); C24 (-21.99%); C5 (-20.7%); C14 (-20.1%); C21 (-19.7%); C27 (-19.5%); and C13 (-19.5%).
- The largest PLP vote increases were in just 7 constituencies (29 saw declines): C8 (+16.1%); C12 (+13.2%); C11 (+10.5%); C9 (+6.7%); C30 (+5%); C1 (+3.1%); and C4 (+0.5%).
- The largest PLP vote decline, in C20, may largely be attributed to a boundary change that removed a significant number of traditionally PLP voters, moving them to the previously marginal C17. C17 was uncontested in this election, however it is likely this boundary change renders C17 less of a marginal and more of a PLP safe seat going forward.
- The causes for the changes in the PLP votes reflected above need to be investigated further (boundary changes, candidate ‘star’ power, canvassing/campaign investment are all possible, but harder to quantify).
- The OBA vote saw an increase in only one constituency, C10, with a +1.2% increase.
- The five largest OBA vote declines were in C34 (-63%); C35 (-62.8%); C18 (62%); C36 (61.6%); and C2 (50.8%).
- The median OBA decline was 39.7%; The median PLP decline was 11%.
- It is worth noting that three of the OBA’s largest declines were in seats that saw a specific concentration of FDM activity (more later).
- It is also worth noting that one of the OBA’s largest declines was the one held by their Leader and considered one of the OBA’s safest seats – indicative of a general vote of no confidence in the OBA Leader by its supporters?
Now, as this post is getting long and is already chockful of data, I am going to end it here, and devote another post specifically to trying to answer the following questions:
- Where did the missing PLP/OBA voters go?
- Where did the FDM vote come from?

Excellent analysis.
I am hopeful that an internal analysis by the PLP will look closely at the 11% median reduction.
I hope it isn’t lost since the end result (30 – 6) was so large.
The OBA, at a much higher median reduction, has more than a lot to do.
Thanks for taking time to provide the analysis.