Hurricanes – Literal and Electoral

Here in Bermuda we’re preparing for the arrival of Hurricane Leslie, due over the weekend. While it seems to be moving away from the direct hit that was earlier predicted, we’re still going to be in for a little bit of fun. The weather today is brilliant though – and the calm before the storm should come tomorrow’ish.

As for preparedness, everything seems fine, and where I’m staying there shouldn’t be any problems, even in a Fabian-style hit. At most I’m concerned about whether I’ll be able to leave next week as planned, but I don’t think that’ll be a problem (although I’ll be happy to stay a few more days!)

The island remains in a general state of anticipation for the next general election. In truth we’ve been in a long electoral campaign for at least the last twelve months, although it will have to soon move from a cold war punctuated by occassional skirmishes to an all out battle soon.

The election has to be called by spring 2013, but my money is on a mid-December election, for various reasons, the two main ones being the potential advantage of using the Throne Speech to launch the campaign, and various consequences arising from the November Presidential election in the US.

I’ll also put my money on the OBA winning the popular vote but losing the overall constituency vote, thus leading to a return (albeit a wounded one) of the PLP, perhaps with the loss of some seats.

Of course, things can change rapidly in politics, and predictions don’t really amount to much, but still, the above are mine.

Myself, I’m not impressed with either of the two main parties (OBA or PLP), and the small UBP or phantom NLP (officially defunct, but there are signs they’re working on a resurrection) are barely on my radar at the moment.

I remain dedicated to the original ideas of progressive labour, but am unhappy with the failure of the PLP to realise them – and particularly unhappy that it didn’t have to turn out this way.

The OBA puts me off with a whiff of deception and their apparent disconnect from the lived reality of the many – and their general approach reeks of arrogance and condescension, which generally put me off.

I’ll wait and see the platforms of both, but at the moment I’m pretty much despondent at my choices, and not relishing the coming political hurricane.


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