2012 Bermuda Election – And Seat Predictions

Well, the Premier confirmed last night that the general election will be this year.

This chimes with my earlier prediction of a December 2012 election. I expect the PLP to use the upcoming Throne Speech as a dress-rehearsal for their election platform (and the OBA similarly with their reply), and then to dissolve parliament almost immediately.

I expect the election to be held in early to mid December, most likely the second week. This will allow the bulk of overseas students to return and be able to vote, while also letting the country come to terms with whatever the result will be over the Christmas and New Years holidays.

I’m going to be bold here and give my prediction for the result.

I expect a hung parliament, with each party winning eighteen seats. What happens from there I do not know…

I am expecting a near universal swing AGAINST the PLP and FOR the OBA, with the OBA even likely to win the popular vote. However, due to the way the votes are distributed, I expect the result to be evenly split constituency wise. I also expect the UBP to be liquidated. The big questions though are what happens in the two seats where both the OBA and UBP are running? I expect the PLP to win these two due to a split vote, but if the OBA wins even one of them they win power.

Constituency #6 is interesting also due to the PLP candidate being a defector from the Opposition, but I expect him to win. Constituency #14 is also interesting, switching from a PLP stronghold to a marginal, but I think the PLP will ‘just’ carry the seat (it being held by the Premier). Constituency #17 could also be interesting, but with the boundary changes I expect the PLP to win. Constituency #21, with, I think, now six candidates running, is also going to be interesting. I think the PLP will win, but if the incumbent runs as an Independent I predict the OBA to capitalise on the split vote and win.

I expect the following constituency votes:

Constituency One – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Two – The PLP to win this seat.

Constituency Three – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Four – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Five – The PLP to win this seat.

Constituency Six – The PLP to win this seat.

Constituency Seven – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Eight – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Nine – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Ten – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Eleven – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Twelve – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Thirteen – The OBA to win this seat.

Constituency Fourteen – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Fifteen – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Sixteen – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Seventeen – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Eighteen – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Nineteen – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-One – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Two – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Three – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Four – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Five – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Six – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Seven – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Eight – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Twenty-Nine – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Thirty – The OBA wins this seat.

Constituency Thirty-One – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Thirty-Two – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Thirty-Three – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Thirty-Four – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Thirty-Five – The PLP wins this seat.

Constituency Thirty-Six – The PLP wins this seat.

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5 thoughts on “2012 Bermuda Election – And Seat Predictions

  1. I predict 18 to PLP, 17 to OBA, 1 to UBP (Charlie Swan). This is on the basis of OBA winning in #21, so I see a smaller swing than you

    Assuming that the OBA wins the popular vote and can count on the support of Charlie Swan, then presumably the Governor would invite the OBA to form a government.

    18-18 is very messy – constant deadlock – there might have to be a fresh election in order to have a decisive victory.

  2. Pingback: Bermuda: Election Thoughts · Global Voices

  3. So, obviously I made the above predictions before announcing my intentions to run as an Independent candidate in the upcoming elections. I wanted to make sure I had a good platform in place, and at least the basics of a campaign strategy, as well as getting a sounding from the constituency. I most certainly didn’t want my launch to be a shambles.

    In the above predictions I didn’t factor in Phil Perinchief and I both running as Independents, in #18 and #20 respectively.

    Obviously we both believe we have the skills, experience and passion to not just win these constituencies, but to also serve them – and serve them well.

    Will we win? We’ll find out on election night. I certainly think I have a decent chance and that I’ll make an impact one way or another.

  4. So, how’d I do?

    I got the overall numbers wrong, with the OBA winning, albeit with only a two seat majority (OBA 19, PLP 17).

    I got Constituency 2 wrong. I honestly thought this seat would be between the Independent Kim Swan and the PLP candidate. In the end, although Mr Swan took a significant number of votes, it was ultimately between the PLP and OBA candidates, with the OBA only just winning. The problems concerning the PLP’s campaign in this constituency where likely the main cause of the PLP defeat, along with the boost of support for Independents and the general swing in favour of the OBA.

    I also got Constituency 3 wrong. I don’t think I fully accounted for the boundary changes and the support base for the PLP there.

    I got Constituency 13 wrong. I felt that the boundary changes, combined with the expected swing to the OBA, as well as the hard work the OBA had put in there, would mean an OBA victory. In the end the PLP won, but only just, winning by only 19 votes.

    I got Constituency 14 wrong. I wasn’t surprised at the result though, as I had made this initial prediction without a closer look at how the boundaries had shifted. The shift went strongly in favour of the OBA, and the Premier was also held responsible for a lot of the PLP’s faults.

    I got Constituency 31 wrong. I had expected the OBA vote to be split much more by the Independent Charlie Swan. This didn’t really materialise, and the OBA won accordingly.

    So, I got five predictions wrong, and thirty-one correct. Not bad, I suppose, but I was still off in the overall result.

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